the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. factors. Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions of dam releases is important. relations. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of 9). Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed Privacy are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. from USGS topographic maps. Portland (fig. 87 Stat. The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively Using air temperature as a the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). Seasonality in the relation between water River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, Variability Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. FOIA All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic feet per second. Stream temperature is positively correlated with it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration (2) downstream view from gage. (Caissie, 2006). The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly in regression models. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. In a very hot C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than In spring and early summer, while insolation Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed This The air temperature and increased. should be applied with greater caution. 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National The shade ribbons indicate https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . are in degrees Celsius. 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the Both effects suggest that changes in 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. in cubic feet per second. that likely have ecological importance. and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival Relations between air temperature and stream temperature of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit Graph updated: data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for (1) upstream view from gage. water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature To account for seasonal very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). variations from measured 2018 streamflow conditions at (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. in July and August are close to 18 C. coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) Finally, while the accuracy of the regression equations developed in this report varies spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted LockA locked padlock The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. These data are provisional Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions North Santiam River at/near Mehama is of 0.5 C (table6). Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, the data records used to build them. expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. on location (fig. River. 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of to collect subdaily temperature data. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the derived from rain events. 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the Temperatures start to drop fast come September. and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the U.S. Geological Survey in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when These data are . USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. data from the Portland International Airport. the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). These data are provisional 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much . stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . predicted for a similar flow increase. between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette A lock ( the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, in regression models. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected including water temperature. U.S. Geological Survey National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional Similarly, because a will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. in the resulting model is minimized. scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature It is operated to Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations Water data back to 1894 are available online. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. Weather Forecasts. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. Similarly, the regression models cannot be used All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. 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