Please fill in the RSVP quantity, confirmation name, and email fields. | 28,583 members Are we tone deaf? Livin’ our lives through a lens Turchin, however, does not do politics, except as filtered through statistics. In essence, this is violence, from minor riots to civil wars. Aha, so good (so good) So said the Romans. Drink, this one’s on me SDT consists of three basic claims, or “principles.” First, population growth exceeding productivity (the Malthusian Trap, in essence) leads to falling wages, migration, and ultimately, wage protests such as riots. This malady only affects the Right, and I name it Scrutonism. Ah, so good What is a “baby boomer”? Elites have competed more, on every axis, including conspicuous consumption, and are less unified. In “Elite Dynamics,” Turchin focuses on the ruling class, defined as the (small) fraction of the population in whom social power is concentrated. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Finally, Turchin describes what he means by “instability,” a term he seems to apply sometimes to the state and sometimes to broader society, which he says dominates disintegrative phases. I have War and Peace and War, but haven’t read that. It seeks to offer general principles that can be tested against historical data, and that testing is what Turchin offers here. Turchin uses, as usual, clever proxies, such as the naming patterns of counties to show trust in government prior to 1950 (when direct polling data on trust in government first became available). Source: LyricFind. To the rhythm, to the rhythm I recently wrote of the Finnish Civil War, where the Whites defeated the Reds. Turchin calls this the science of “cliodynamics,” a neologism formed from the name of the muse of history and the term for the science of why things change (and also reflecting that society is a web, a “dynamical system”). Dance, dance, dance to the distortion This is the “labor oversupply principle.” Second, fast population growth also leads to “elite overproduction,” where elites compete for a largely fixed number of elite positions, which leads to elite disunity, the creation of a counter-elite, and elite conflict. All that would be just fine by me, and in fact strongly endorsed by me, but it’s not clear that much can be done about elite overproduction at this point, or the fragmentation of the elite, or the bloated, debt-ridden and war-losing state, or the other elements of increasing instability. Turn it up, keep it on repeat It is quite another experience to observe... A few weeks ago, I watched Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Quentin Tarantino’s movie delivered to me what I have been seeking. It is my desire After all, how on earth can yet another murderous rampage have anything to do with polarization in Congress? It’s not that history follows a random walk, like the stock market. If something can’t go on forever, it won’t, but it may end tomorrow or in two hundred years. Community Member. Dynamics of Sociopolitical Instability 113 Part Three A Complete Secular Cycle: from the Revolution to the Great Depression, c.1780–1930 7. . Perhaps Turchin is just saying the same thing from a different angle with some more certitude as to timing. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord. Send Me Info About The Fellows Program, UMN Student He takes this as demonstrating the accuracy of the labor oversupply principle. He analyzes law school itself in great detail, such as tracking tuition since 1840 as expressed in terms of manufacturing worker annual wage. The greed over the people Weekly Student Group Email (current UMN students) Obviously, I’m an apocalyptic pessimist, so the conclusion seems just about right to me. discord reaction role bot. No matter; the broader point is that there is a small elite that benefits as the mass is immiserated, which can be shown by measuring wealth disparities and their change over time, along with direct measurement of the percentage of elites on non-wealth metrics and calculation of their competition and fragmentation. Happily numb Stumblin’ around like a wasted zombie The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago—but there are four times as many multimillionaires. It is coming from another corner of the public bmarket but it does see the frailty of the mirror image: But predicting how and when those patterns will yield any particular result in any given society seems like astrology. When we think of Late Antiquity, we usually think of Rome, either its decline in the West or its continuation in the East. But mostly, they talk about only a small slice of the overall problem. It is special because it is the last of its kind. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Is the society undertaking the expenses, supposedly to defend ourselves, but in actualllity themselves defending from the rest of us. Yeah, we think we’re free They stumblin’ and fumblin’ and we’re about to riot It goes on, and on, and on (on and on and on it goes) But not linear decline, and that matters. (Turchin notes in passing, contrary to what Frederick Lewis Allen claimed in 1931’s Only Yesterday, that the so-called Red Scare was not a mass hysteria, but a legitimate reaction of the elite to known violent organized subversives, who were put out business as a result, ending the violence they were fomenting.) During the Cold War, because of its buffer position, it was occasionally in the news. The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago-but there are four times as many multimillionaires. The convergence of driverless cars-autonomous robots etc has more to do with elites needing armies of controllable killing machines and less with what they claim. Inequality declined. Large-scale success, exceptions to the general rule,... Inflation, like most society-wide monetary happenings, is always complex and often incompletely grasped. Aren’t you lonely Peter Turchin, however, offers a very convincing, and very well-supported, tying of patterns to data. Anyway, if Turchin is right, it’s probably too late at this point. Improving existing content. To the rhythm, to the rhythm (we’re all chained to the rhythm) But the modern world also has many fresh problems impossible to quantify historically, since maladies like rapid-onset gender dysphoria are a new thing, and the role of technology in speeding up change, including both decay and chaos, is something Turchin does not address. The method of Ages of Discord (which, interestingly, is given substantial attention in Presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s recent book) is to use an enormous amount of data and mathematical modeling to add substance to Turchin’s theory of “secular cycles,” developed in an earlier book of that name by Turchin and Sergey Nefedov (where secular has its economic meaning of “a long-term trend of indefinite specific duration”). Dance, dance, dance to the distortion You can count me in as a supporter for Foundationalism! And then we finish with Part IV, covering 1930 to 2010, and predicting beyond, based on the model. So comfortable, we’re livin’ in a bubble, bubble These are themes I see you returning too throughout your posts and I think Turchin has some thoughts on these issues that will complement your own. Technically, it is an American born between 1945 and 1964. 14 Search Popularity. From the publisher: Seventy percent of Americans (and counting) think so. More recently, Nokia was prominent for a while. Almost always one reads a book of future-looking political theory long before or long after its substance has been proven or disproven. “As all these trends intensify, the end result is state bankruptcy and consequent loss of military control; elite movements of regional and national rebellion; and a combination of elite-mobilized and popular uprisings that expose the breakdown of central authority.” This drives the disintegrative phase of the secular cycle, involving increased mortality, decreased productivity, instability, political violence, war, and, potentially, collapse—followed, ultimately, by a new integrative phase, sometimes with a very different society, sometimes with much the same society, where the three principles reverse in unison. When we are feeling particularly adventurous,... For Americans who think that so-called liberal democracy is neither, and in any case is a dead end, successful modern societies with a different political model always intrigue. In one place, the local authorities were excavating a mass grave from the 1930s. In “Demography and Wellbeing,” Turchin examines statistics about and patterns in labor supply since 1780. Thought we could do better than that During good times, elites prosper and act in unity; during bad times, elites turn on each other in an age of backstabbing and civil strife. His point is that more and more it is winner-take-all, demonstrating increasing intraelite competition. Those dates are not ones he chose; rather, they are the ones that result from the empirical analysis of his data, run through his model. 2.06% Organic Share of Voice. As with most Robert Heinlein novels, the point is more the ideas than plot or character. Without specific intention, I seem to have turned into a Roger Crowley fanboy, as shown by that I have now read every one of his books. As so many times before Turn it up, keep it on repeat I will buy Ultrasociety. And party on (woo) Turchin suggests that forewarned is forearmed, and perhaps using the knowledge he provides we can ameliorate the downstroke he expects in the 2020s, when all cycles concentrate to create the first truly low point in 150 years. Certainly, events since 2016, especially in the past year, suggest Turchin is right. This book, the ideas... What will the future look like? Your rose-colored glasses on “Are we crazy? To the rhythm, to the rhythm Here Turchin pulls out all the stops, using large sets of different structural variables, proxies, and the timing of their reversal, and compiling them into one set of cumulative tables and graphs. Great timing. If you wish for peace, prepare for war. The natural state of so-called civilized man is somewhere between today’s Venezuela and today’s Somalia. And they were, but they were also an example of flawed glory. In their eternal quest to remake reality, a perennial target of the Left is the family: man, woman, and children, the bedrock of all human societies. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Peter Turchin) written by Charles Haywood. Like Hari Seldon in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation, Turchin sees this disintegrative phase as inevitable—but also, maybe, ameliorable. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. 1 level 1 Wellbeing increased—even during the Depression, contrary to myth. He would probably say it’s a coincidence, or one of many possible manifestations of underlying trends, that the modern Left got real traction about 1970, and has steadily gained power since.) I am skeptical of those who predict the future by looking at the past. There is a 12:1 ratio on Reddit of single men compared to single women. My core “why” is money. And we do not and will not solicit you; we neither need nor accept money. Drink, this one’s on me Stumbling around like a wasted zombie (like a wasted zombie) Hundreds... 2021 will be the twentieth anniversary of our endless, pointless war in Afghanistan, and 2023 the twentieth anniversary of our endless, pointless war in Iraq. Keep sweepin’ it under the mat No shock, in disintegrative phases, trust in government is low. 2. For me, the answer is always the same—buy guns, and ammo, and wait to see. To the rhythm, to the rhythm (woah) This book appears, to the casual reader, to be propaganda designed to persuade a Great Power, the United States, to aid the Kurdish fight for independence. If you are in those countries, you must be at least that age to use the Services. Break down the walls to connect, inspire Well, I’m not sure. Up there in utopia It is not an easy read. We’re all chained to the rhythm Tellingly for modern debates, Turchin here draws the firm conclusion that when immigration is high, not only wages, but wellbeing, are low, and not just for a few years, but correlating over decades—including the most recent phase, since 1970, where wellbeing has objectively declined (contrary to the propaganda we are fed), while immigration has skyrocketed and real wages stagnated. Elite Dynamics 75 5. So comfortable, we cannot see the trouble, trouble The point of the mathematics is to quantify and weight factors in a model that can be applied across different times and places, as well as perform various transforms and shifts, all of which Turchin explains (and he apparently offers most of his data and models for others to review). It goes on, and on, and on He correlates not war, but successful wars, with integrative phases, and ascribes it to societal cooperation in common sacrifice. On the other hand, my pessimism doesn’t come from math, but simply from viewing history, a lot of history, as well as human nature, and noting the obvious root causes of past historical declines over non-specific time periods. To take a less commonly known example, the integrative phase of Valois France was AD 1450–1560; its disintegrative phase was AD 1560–1660. Religion. The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago—but there are four times as many multimillionaires. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. The framework of Turchin’s model, laid out in Part I, is the “Structural-Demographic Theory,” originated by Jack Goldstone to apply to agrarian societies and reformulated by Turchin and Nefedov in their earlier book to apply to industrial societies. Quite the contrary—it … Parents need to know that Discord - Chat for Gamers is a voice- and text-chat tool geared toward gamers. (And all those claims are stupid on their face—their sole substantive “argument” is that due to the spread of free markets, poverty in the Third World has declined sharply—which is true enough, but totally irrelevant to whether America had a good decade, or is going to have one over the next ten years). Receive updates on upcoming events and community news. If he were writing today, he would doubtless adduce the recent college admissions scandal, where the elite bribed their children’s way into prestigious colleges. No age limit, but keep in mind this server mainly has a 16-25 demographic. Turchin basically says the New Deal, therefore, was irrelevant and not a turning point for any purposes. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. And party on (woo) Then he uses as a proxy for elite fragmentation such measures as political polarization in the House of Representatives. (Turchin ignores the massive problem of looming population decline, however.) Turn it up, it’s your favorite song He is careful not to claim the Civil War was inevitable; there was more to it, much more to it, but it was certainly made possible by the United States being in a disintegrative phase, and on the continuum of violence resulting from instability. Yeah, we think we’re free Where nothing will ever be enough? It goes on, and on, and on (turn it up, it goes on and on and on and on) In 2019, the largest share of game players in the United Kingdom (UK) were young adults, aged between 16 and 24. We’ll see! One of them was Ages of Discord and the other one was Ultrasociety. Turchin offers a straightforward analysis of inequality on various measures, and demonstrates that inequality has increased or decreased in America as labor oversupply has waxed and waned. After the Civil War, instability declined—but not to the levels of the early nineteenth century, and then spiked again around 1920 (this is an example of a sub-cycle subsumed within the longer, complete, secular cycle). Actual starvation due to the Malthusian Trap is no longer a problem in industrial societies, of course—population increases rather lead to declining real wages, with similar negative effects on the wellbeing of the masses, “immiseration” (though the mechanics are more complex than in agrarian societies). “[T]he direction of trend reversals was not random; rather they all conformed to the predictions of the Structural-Demographic Theory. 3.98% Organic Share of Voice. Turn it up, it’s your favorite song (hey) Intraelite competition is measured by, among other statistics, the numbers of law and business students, and their starting salaries over time. He analyzes both immigration and native births, compared to real wages over time, both absolutely and relative to GDP per capita. I read two of Turchin’s books over the holidays and was going to recommend them to you. America flourished, the nature of an integrative phase. We are on the wrong track. Leftists use this to ensure that innumerable books... Do any American children learn about William Tell today? Crawford expands our minds by exploring... Michael Anton’s latest, half analysis and half prophecy, is simultaneously terrifying and clarifying. For example, for residents of the EEA, where processing of personal information is based on consent, Discord will not knowingly engage in that processing for users under the age of consent established by applicable data protection law. Most of what religion remains is Moralistic Therapeutic Deism, which is the sherbet of religions, an unsatisfying imitation of... Years ago, I lived in Budapest with an elderly Hungarian relative, my grandfather’s cousin. Your rose-colored glasses on Yeah, we think we’re free (ah) It has some overlap with Ages of Discord, but is mostly concerned with the issue of how civilizations rise and fall rather than with the oscillations in civilizational stability that Ages of Discord focuses on. He then ties the resulting graphs to measures of wellbeing, such as height of adults (which declined four centimeters from 1830 to 1900! A Dynamic Analysis of American Socio-Political History. I hope we can Stumblin’ around like a wasted zombie In these days of massive censorship, this is wise, even if you normally consume The Worthy House on some other platform. So comfortable, we’re livin’ in a bubble, bubble If you are interesting in joining the discussion, please register below. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. It’s not that history follows a random walk, like the stock market. Some of those related to labor peace and the like; others involved reducing intraelite competition by expelling those not fitting a certain mold, such as Jews. Do any Swiss children learn about him? The “why” of entrepreneurship varies by entrepreneur. This striking pattern suggests that something very fundamental changed in the American social system around 1970.”. On the basis of a demographic theory tested on premodern societies, it correctly predicts that we in 2020 are headed straight into Hell (and then inevitably back.) We’ll find out quite soon, I think. Quite the contrary—it is easy to show certain patterns in history. The State 99 6. Like that book, however, it does posit cycles in societies (as do many other books, ranging from Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah to Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies). We’re all chained to the rhythm (we’re all) — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, A little less conversation, a little more action, please / All this aggravation ain't satisfactioning me . Turchin shows how the Structural-demographic theory first championed by Jack A. Goldstone in the antic (Roman) and (French, English, Russian) medieval eras can also account for the United States's secular cycle (going from 1780 to 2010, with the Civil War being the first Age of discord). However, as a recent adherent to Eastern Orthodoxy, I approach analysis, as opposed to knowledge, of Orthodox theology as presumptively... You have likely never heard of the Finnish Civil War. This is the “elite overproduction principle.” And third, the “instability principle,” where population growth also leads to expansion of the state, resulting in increased taxes, which inevitably fail to cover expenses, leading to fiscal crisis. Turn it up, keep it on repeat So, for example, he shows that when you overlay a graph of mass wellbeing on a graph for elite overproduction, you see that since 1780 there is a precise inverse relationship between the two—just as the SDT predicts. Certainly, for example, some of my many complaints about the symptoms of degraded and stupid culture are subsumed within his measures of wellbeing. They occasionally branch out into new topics and always welcome new members to join in their lively discussions. He does not think that Steven Pinker is right that we are now more civilized than we used to be; for Turchin, there is no thing new under the Sun, except for, perhaps the science of cliodynamics. Thus, his project is to develop mathematical models, then feed them historical data from different eras and see what comes out. Please enable JavaScript in your browser. Turchin is not claiming specific causation. I’m not religious (though unfortunately I doubt that an irreligious society can be truly virtuous), so I disagree with you on some topics, but by and large I share you view on society and where we should be going instead. If the age demographic is extended to 35, then it would encompass 80% of all Reddit users. viewed at least one channel) within the past 28 days. 21 Search Popularity. Most cultures throughout history have been terrible. What do I think of all this? I’d blame it on the Left, and often have. Stumblin’ around like a wasted zombie Time is ticking for the empire Perhaps addressing labor oversupply would alleviate the down cycle, but the violent ruling class pushback against Trump’s minor attempts to limit immigration suggests that the elite is not going to accept any limiting actions until forced to by the chaos to come. And much more along the same lines. Some newly-minted lawyers get very high salaries, but there is now a bi-modal distribution, where the other peak, with many more students, is low salaries that are inadequate to pay back law school loans. No surprise, labor oversupply has grown, due primarily to immigration but also to an ever-greater percentage of women working outside the home, which is why median household incomes have risen, masking that per capita incomes have fallen. Read my review on infantry tactics! New reading material please register below and was going to recommend them to.. Was not random ; rather they all conformed to the predictions of the great Shawnee Indian War chief Tecumseh models! That means exactly, we ’ ll see my thoughts and you ’ given. Have competed more, on every axis, including conspicuous consumption, for! Government is low offers a very convincing, and often patterns within patterns, while unconvincingly disclaiming that he.! 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